The southwest monsoon is moving out of several parts of India, but rain is set to continue across large parts of the country over the next few days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rain and thunderstorms across parts of north, east and central India. Southern states are also expected to witness rainfall.
According to the IMD, a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal and another circulation over the Arabian Sea are influencing weather conditions. The weather office’s October 6 tropical outlook said a cyclonic circulation was present over south coastal Odisha and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. Another circulation was located over the southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast. The IMD gave a nil probability of these systems developing into a depression during the following seven days.
The weather pattern is also being influenced by a western disturbance over the northern parts of the country. This is expected to bring rain to parts of the western Himalayan region and the plains.
J&K, Himachal & Uttarakhand may witness rain
The western Himalayan region is likely to receive intermittent rain through October 10. Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh may receive rain around October 8 and again on October 10.
Some higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir could also receive light snowfall. Districts such as Anantnag, Pulwama and Doda may witness snow at higher elevations, while rain is possible in Rajouri, Poonch and adjoining areas.
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are also expected to experience light to moderate rain at intervals. Areas around Shimla, Manali and Kullu could receive rain along with gusty winds. In Uttarakhand, rain is possible in districts including Pithoragarh, Dehradun, Rudraprayag and Chamoli.
The weather system will also affect the northern plains. Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh may receive scattered rain accompanied by thunderstorms around October 10. Eastern Uttar Pradesh is also expected to receive rain during this period.
Bihar, Jharkhand & Bengal face another wet spell
The eastern region is set for several days of unsettled weather. Bihar and Jharkhand may receive light rain with thunderstorms and lightning on October 7. Rain is also forecast in parts of West Bengal during the coming days.
The IMD said the rainfall pattern is due to circulation and trough activity over eastern India and the Bay of Bengal. The October 6 tropical outlook recorded an upper-air cyclonic circulation over south coastal Odisha and the adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal.
Rainfall is also expected to continue across parts of Madhya Pradesh until October 9 and Chhattisgarh until October 10. Vidarbha in Maharashtra may receive rain through October 8.
In the Northeast, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to witness a gradual reduction in rainfall intensity.
Monsoon withdrawal continues across India
The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from India on September 19, 2026. The IMD has since recorded further retreat from several parts of the northern and western regions.
The withdrawal process is now progressing through parts of Bihar and Jharkhand along with other areas. The changing weather does not mean rainfall will stop immediately. Weather systems developing during the post-monsoon period can continue to bring showers after the seasonal monsoon current has pulled back.
The weather monitoring agency has issued its extended-range forecast for October 1 to 14. The forecast tracks the continuing monsoon withdrawal and rainfall across the country.
Heavy rain forecast for Kerala & Tamil Nadu
Southern India is also expected to witness a wet spell. Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal have been forecast to receive heavy rain in parts of the period.
Karnataka may also see heavy rain, including in Bengaluru. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could experience thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds.
The Arabian Sea circulation off the Kerala coast is one of the weather features being monitored by the IMD. Its October 6 bulletin recorded scattered clouds and areas of moderate to intense convection over the southern Arabian Sea, Maldives and the Comorin region. The system had no probability of developing into a depression over the next seven days.
The combination of the western disturbance, Bay of Bengal circulation, troughs and the continuing withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is expected to keep weather conditions active across several states through the next few days.
